[Just For Fun] JYP's SIXTEEN Analysis and Prediction for Twice.

Over the last year I swear I've followed rookie formations more than I follow already debuted idols and one I've had my eye on is JYP's girl group.

Originally meant to debut under the name 6Mix, JYP has experienced last minute member changes with the departure of Lena (who you may remember from Sunmi's Full Moon) and Cecilia (Chinese Australian from Got 7's Girls Girls Girls and A MVs) leaving them to scrap plans for an April 2014 debut and head back to the drawing board.

Dearly departed...

... You are not gathered here today because you quit

The new plan appears to be SIXTEEN, a reality show along the lines of Kara Project, Win, No Mercy or  Mix and Match. All of which are survival programs pitting trainees against one another with the promise of a debut for the winners. But before anyone accuses JYP of jumping on the bandwagon it's worth noting they were one of the original pioneers of survival in KPop with the 2008 show "Hot Blooded Men" showing the cut throat creation of 2pm and 2am.

The premise of SIXTEEN has been revealed as 7 members will be in the original line up with the other 9 fighting to take their place. Although who is in the current line up and who's fighting is yet to be revealed. In the end the group will debut under the name "Twice" (I assume this is some joke on how it's the second time trying to put together a line up for their rookie girl group?)

As of last night the teasers have all been released and the show will soon begin airing in Korea in May.

In the past I've had a slight knack for predicting music based reality shows and have called the winners of Kara Project, Win and Mix and Match long before their final episode.

So as a challenge (purely just for fun) armed with nothing but 30 second trailers and the minimal pre debut knowledge available I'm going to try to predict who will be selected as the members of Twice

Listing all the members is a blog entry in itself but if you haven't seen the line up yet, check out their teasers on the official SIXTEEN youtube channel:  CLICK HERE

Alternatively for the lazy fan, have this picture with their names on it:

If anyone ever played the game "Guess Who?" as a kid you'll remember eliminating possibilities based on general characteristics (e.g. "are you a man?").

#Only90sKidsWillRemember

Similarly this principal can be applied to immediately ruling out any contestant born from 2000 onwards.

If you're a kpop fan in general you will likely know Yeri was added to Red Velvet this year for their Ice Cream Cake comeback after they originally debuted with 4 members in 2014. This was due to new age laws introduced in South Korea preventing minors under 16 (15 internationally) from working long hours.

Yeri was born in 1999 so logically one year later anyone born in 2000 or after would not be eligible to debut this year (unless the company wanted to slash schedules and affect the whole group... unlikely).

So right off the bat this rules out:

• Somi (2001)
• Eunsuh (2000)
• Chaeryeong (2001)
• Natty (2002)
• Chaeyeon (2000)

Already we've ruled out a third of the competition

The second primary thing to consider is the original members of 6Mix. These girls were set to debut and were already judged by the company as being ready a year ago. To top it off they've shown company loyalty by not jumping ship after the group collapse and stayed with JYP. Whilst the idea of "family" in companies is laughable at best in my opinion it's highly likely those originally from 6Mix will be included in Twice.

First line up

Second line up with Sana replacing Cecilia

The above girls were meant to debut in 6Mix (with Cecilia leaving there was initially a replacement until Lena left also) from those; Nayeon, Sana, Jisoo (competing is Jihyo), Minyoung and Jeongyeong are in SIXTEEN

5/7 members 

Taking shape already

Running with a similar theme, MV experience is a big indicator of who labels plan to debut soon (Mijoo of Lovelyz was in INFINITE's Last Romeo a few months before her debut for example). From SIXTEEN the following girls have been in MVs for Got 7.

Nayeon – girls girls girls

Sana – A
Dahyun – Stop it stop it
Chaeyoung – Stop it Stop it

Jungyeon – Girls girls girls

Several of the 6Mix girls were naturally featured but 2 new names to highlight are Chaeyoung and Dahyun

JYP has also put a lot of work into media playing about the inclusion of foreigners in the group also.

As an opinion based blog political correctness isn't my forte so forgive me for saying in recent years foreigners have been treated like a novelty in Kpop. "Foreigners" were once just considered a Korean born overseas (i.e. SNSD Tiffany) but has now turned into idols of mixed or completely non Korean race. Companies then easy gain media exposure, by throwing in a foreign member it attempts to cash in on the growing global reach kpop has had, giving them an appeal to once way out of reach foreign countries.

This can be seen in examples such as:

• Sorn - CLC
• Lay, Tao - EXO (previously including Luhan and Kris also)
• Nichkyun - 2PM
• Amber, Victoria (fx)
• Casper, Takuya Cross Gene
• Mark, Jackson, Bam Bam - Got 7

However Korea is still quite loyal to their own in terms of entertainers and to make sure they have appeal as Kpop idols in Korea, foreigners usually account for a small make up of the group.  Typically ranging from 1 off members (such as Sorn or Nichkyun) to the largest being Got 7 at 3/7.

So I'd estimate there's a place for 2 or 3 foreigners in Twice.

There has been promotion of competitors from Japan and Southeast Asia, so for that reason I feel like one would need to be included to prevent fans from those countries feel like they were duped into supporting their show for ratings and cheering for a member only to be let down completely.

Out of the 16, 6 are foreign or mixed

Sana – Japan

Tzuyu – Taiwan
Somi – Korean/Canadian
Momo – Japan
Mina – Japan
Natty – Thailand

Ruling out the youngins of Natty, and Somi this leaves Sana, Tzuyu, Momo and Mina.

Tzuyu as the only Southeast asian remaining (combined with her popular response from fans already) has me leaning towards her being picked along with Sana who was originally in 6Mix.

On the opposite spectrum of age (that was listed above in ruling out the young kids) Korea is quite brutal in making relatively young people feel old and past their prime. Not to mention JYP's plans to debut the remaining contestants who don't get picked for Twice in 2 years. 

For those who have watched the teasers I honestly feel (especially with Natty and Somi) you can tell just how much younger the kids are from the adults. Both in terms of camera presence and physical development. So another defining factor would be the older contestants being more likely to make the cut.

The oldest born from 95-97 line are:

• Nayeon (95)
• Sana (96)
• Momo (96)
• Mina (97)
• Jihyo (97)

a 5 year age gap in Kpop isn't actually uncommon so the 97 line doesn't have too much to worry about but 95-96 is where they start to push it especially compared to how young Natty especially looks.

Put someone turning 20 in a group with this foetus and just try telling me it looks cohesive

Finally with all things considered there's the traditional "roles" of a Kpop group. The things profiles live for and the essential characteristics needed to form a group so what one member lacks another compensates for.

Purely based on my own assumptions and mentions in their one paragraph bio I've sorted the members into what they seemed to fit from the roles of a typical kpop girl group

Rapper: Chaeyoung

Visual: Nayeon, Somi

Dancer: Sana, Tzuyu, Momo, Eunsuh, Mina, Chaeyoung

Vocal: Jiwon, Minyoung, Jihyo, Jungyeon

Personality/Variety: Dahyun, Chaeyeon, Natty

Typically Kpop requires at least one of each category with vocalists and dancers making up the repeated members (i.e. the two roles of main/lead dancer). However at the same time they don't put all their eggs in the same basket. If you debut all your best vocalists in one group and they bomb then you're left with no decent vocalists to have a chance of carrying the next load of rookies. So there will need to be a mix and match of each position

So with a combination of laws, age, race, previous experience and expected roles my idea of the Twice line up would be (in order of my certainty)

1. Nayeon

As soon as I heard Nayeon was a contestant I wanted to rename the show FIFTEEN because she's a guarantee. Long term trainee since 2010, Original 6Mix, oldest member (pressure's on to debut soon as by Kpop standards she's ageing quick), visual, MV exposure with an existing fandom amongst the pre debut JYP community.

2. Sana

The first foreigner to make my list Sana is Japanese and I'm not sure if she's mixed with Australian heritage or was born/raised here but she has the added benefit of being an English speaker. Dancer, original 6Mix, and previous MV exposure. Also the 2nd oldest.

3. Jihyo

Despite being born in 1997 Jihyo has been a trainee for a huge 10 years putting her in a position to be due for a debut soon. Original 6Mix member (under the name Jisoo) and vocalist.

4. Dahyun

First on my list not to be from 6Mix but still a near guarantee is Dahyun. She was signed after a video of her dancing in church went viral and has been one of the most popular members revealed. Her teaser on Youtube has 88143 views at the time of writing, more than 30000 views to the next closest Somi (who has 53335 respectively) and more than double the views the average contestant is getting. She would be great as a rookie on interviews with her church story being good for anecdotes not to mention impersonations are highly regarded on varieties (her church dance was imitating an eagle or something?). And there's also her push in MVs for Got 7.

5. Jungyeong

She's the only one I can't find the age for but I'd guess 96-97 line. Original 6Mix, vocalist, and with MV experience. Also a strange reason but something to consider, she's the only girl with short hair. Usually rookies will have one member with shorter hair to help with differentiating between them in their debut (just look how much Binnie stands out in Oh My Girl)

6. Chaeyoung

The other non 6Mix member I'm tipping. Chaeyoung is the only member to introduce herself in the teasers as a rapper, which as a "fiercer" group they are going to need. Lena was originally the rapper of 6Mix before leaving which means there's a void to be filled and Chaeyoung seems to fit that place. She also has MV experience.

7. Minyeong

Clearly the main vocalist from her teaser not to mention great English pronunciation. Original 6Mix member.

WILDCARDS

Momo

My actual favourite and I am so tempted to put her in my lineup out of sheer bias. She left a great impression from her teaser, she's older so she fits the group well, fits the multicultural concept as Japanese, has excellent dancing skills, and her abs deserve their own fandom. 

If she gets in over my planned 7, I will never be happier to be wrong in my life.

Tzuyu 

The only South East asian eligible (by age laws) and she's been one of the more well received contestants. 

However the release of the teasers was in the order of 

1. Nayeon
2. Sana
3. Dahyun
4. Tzuyu
5. Chaeyoung. 

Nayeon, Sana, Dahyun and Chaeyoung all are in my top 7 list. So for 5 out 7 members to all be released as the first teasers seems almost too obvious? Kind of like when you're taking a multiple choice test and all the answers a C for a while so you start doubting if that's right.

Mina

For similar reasons to Momo. I think she suits the concept of this group, her age is one of the older contestants and she fits the multicultural aspect. However I think Momo is the stronger dancer.

Of course this is barely based on anything more than 30 second video clips and snippets of paragraphs available on tumblr so I barely know shit.

The funny thing about TV is it's predictable but then at the same time fear predictability (because it loses it's audience) for all I know JYP could throw a massive bomb and debut one of the 2000 liners, or one of the other girls I've completely overlooked. 

This is basically nothing more than opinionated guess work that I think will be funny to look back on in 2 months and either declare myself a psychic genius or an absolute moron.

On the off chance anyone read through this whole piece (or cares) leave a comment below on if you're interested in the show, who you think will make the line up and who you want to be in Twice.